Afghanistan. The Strain is Beginning to Show
Afghanistan. The Strain is Beginning to Show
Although the Taliban took power four years ago, and poppy cultivation has remained at historically low levels since 2023, declining opium prices, widespread poppy cultivation in Badakhshan, and the rise of opium production in the Taliban’s heartlands in the southwest indicate that the Taliban drugs ban is at risk. Regional factors are also undermining the poppy ban. Increased poppy cultivation in Pakistan is putting downward pressure on prices, undercutting the value of opium stocks that insulated landed farmers in southwest Afghanistan from the economic effects of the poppy ban, and could hasten the return to widespread poppy cultivation. Tehran’s decision to deport large numbers of undocumented Afghan migrants eliminates a critical source of remittances and increases the number of those dependent on farming for their income. In doing so, it puts further economic pressure on already vulnerable households in provinces like Badakhshan and increases the likelihood of higher poppy cultivation in 2026. As greater numbers of farmers are made vulnerable by the ban, the Taliban will have to choose between at least tacitly allowing the return of widespread poppy cultivation and deploying greater levels of coercion, including against its supporters in the southwest. (David Mansfield in Alcis, UK, 21.08.2025)
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