Afghanistan/Iran/Pakistan. Rising Drug Production in an Increasingly Unstable Golden Crescent 

Afghanistan/Iran/Pakistan. Rising Drug Production in an Increasingly Unstable Golden Crescent 

Poppy cultivation continues to expand across Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran despite reports of the imminent demise of natural opiates

Since the Taliban announced its poppy ban in Afghanistan in April 2022, there has been considerable speculation about the demise of natural opiates and their inevitable replacement by synthetic opioids. While UNODC has correctly reported the dramatic fall in cultivation following enforcement of the ban in late 2022, it has erroneously estimated that Afghanistan’s remaining opium stocks will be depleted by the end of 2026 and that cultivation in neighbouring countries remains marginal.

Instead, natural-opiate production in the Golden Crescent is not declining but in fact resurging in 2026 as opium poppy cultivation expands across Afghanistan, as well as in neighbouring Pakistan and Iran. Within Afghanistan, cultivation has risen notably in the increasingly restive northeastern province of Badakhshan, and in the southwest where substantial opium stocks had insulated many landed farmers from the economic effects of the Taliban’s drugs ban. While larger landowners in southwestern provinces like Helmand still retain significant stocks and therefore the capital to withstand the ban, growing numbers of smaller landowners faced depleted inventories and economic ruin that compelled them to resume cultivation this year and resist eradication efforts. The tensions were such that in May 2026 the Taliban leadership issued instructions preventing local authorities from entering household compounds to destroy poppy or seize opium without a court order. This has raised the prospect of increased production in subsequent seasons. (David Mansfield, Alcis, UK, 15.09.2026)

https://www.alcis.org/post/rising-drug-production-in-an-increasingly-unstable-golden-crescent